Bolivians Will Keep Morales After Election

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Evo Morales will practically run unopposed in the upcoming presidential election in Bolivia, according to a poll by Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado published in La Razón. 55 per cent of respondents would vote for the incumbent in this month’s ballot, up three points since October.

In 2005, Morales—an indigenous leader and former coca-leaf farmer—won the December 2005 presidential election as the candidate for the Movement to Socialism (MAS), with 53.7 per cent of the vote. He was officially sworn in as Bolivia’s first indigenous head of state in January 2006.

Morales’s tenure has been focused on “re-founding” Bolivia through a new constitution. The new document was ratified last January.

The revamped constitution includes a bill of rights and an entire chapter dedicated to Bolivia’s 36 indigenous nations. It also put the economy in the hands of the state, limited landholdings, redistributed revenues from gas fields in the eastern lowlands to the country’s poorer areas, and included a compromise that will allow the current president to seek only one additional five-year term.

Under the terms of the new body of law, a general election has been scheduled for Dec. 6. Morales is seeking re-election.

On Nov. 27, Morales declared: “I think I can achieve a huge triumph on Dec. 6, not a triumph for Evo Morales … but for you, brothers and sisters.”

Polling Data

If the presidential election took place tomorrow, who would you vote for?

  Nov. 2009 Oct. 2009 Sept. 2009
Evo Morales 55% 52% 54%
Manfred Reyes Villa 18% 21% 20%
Samuel Doria Medina 10% 13% 11%
René Joaquino 2% 3% 3%
Alejo Véliz 1%
Other / Blank ballot 15% 11% 11%

Source: Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / La Razón
Methodology: Interviews with 2,980 Bolivian adults, conducted from Nov. 14 to Nov. 22, 2009. Margin of error is 2.45 per cent.

Source: Angus Reid Global Monitor

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